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Abstract The northern Indian Ocean is a hotspot of nitrous oxide (O) emission to the atmosphere. Yet, the direct link between production and emission of O in this region is still poorly constrained, in particular the relative contributions of denitrification, nitrification and ocean transport to the O efflux. Here, we implemented a mechanistically based O cycling module into a regional ocean model of the Indian Ocean to examine how the biological production and transport of O control the spatial variation of O emissions in the basin. The model captures the upper ocean physical and biogeochemical dynamics of the northern Indian Ocean, including vertical and horizontal O distribution observed in situ and regionally integrated O emissions of 286 152 Gg N (annual mean seasonal range) in the lower range of the observation‐based reconstruction (391 237 Gg N ). O emissions are primarily fueled by nitrification in or right below the surface mixed layer (57%, including 26% in the mixed layer and 31% right below), followed by denitrification in the oxygen minimum zones (30%) and O produced elsewhere and transported into the region (13%). Overall, 74% of the emitted O is produced in subsurface and transported to the surface in regions of coastal upwelling, winter convection or turbulent mixing. This spatial decoupling between O production and emissions underscores the need to consider not only changes in environmental factors critical to O production (oxygen, primary productivity etc.) but also shifts in ocean circulation that control emissions when evaluating future changes in global oceanic O emissions. 

Many estuaries experience eutrophication, deoxygenation and warming, with potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. However, the response of N₂O production to these changes is poorly constrained. Here we applied nitrogen isotope tracer incubations to measure N₂O production under experimentally manipulated changes in oxygen and temperature in the Chesapeake Bay—the largest estuary in the United States. N₂O production more than doubled from nitrification and increased exponentially from denitrification when O₂was decreased from >20 to <5 micromolar. Raising temperature from 15° to 35°C increased N₂O production 2- to 10-fold. Developing a biogeochemical model by incorporating these responses, N₂O emissions from the Chesapeake Bay were estimated to decrease from 157 to 140 Mg N year⁻¹from 1986 to 2016 and further to 124 Mg N year⁻¹in 2050. Although deoxygenation and warming stimulate N₂O production, the modeled decrease in N₂O emissions, attributed to decreased nutrient inputs, indicates the importance of nutrient management in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, potentially mitigating climate change.